The Commoditization of Compute, v4–AMD Will Fall
Thesis, Scorecard, and Updated Outlook. Petrochemical templates from 1965 to 1999 as forecasting models for NVIDIA, AMD, and the compute industry. Supersedes "Escaping the Commodity Core, v3" (August 27, 2026) and the November 2025 petrochemical-analog valuation thesis. New in v4: the two prior workstreams are merged into