For most of modern Chinese history, ultra-processed foods were essentially nonexistent. As late as 1980, before the supermarket boom, foreign fast-food chains, mass snack production, and widespread soft-drink penetration, ultra-processed foods accounted for a negligible share of total caloric intake. The most defensible estimate is well under five percent, and
Biotech markets are accustomed to volatility, clinical risk, and long development timelines. What they are less accustomed to, at least in plain sight, is a strategic mispricing so large that it invites inevitable correction. That is increasingly the case with Ventyx Biosciences. In January 2026, Eli Lilly agreed to acquire
For most investors, the artificial intelligence boom is framed around chips, data centers, and cloud infrastructure. Nvidia, hyperscalers, and power utilities dominate the narrative. Yet beneath the hardware arms race lies a quieter and potentially more consequential economic shift: the monetization of training data itself. For more than a decade,
For years, investors have treated China’s economic problems as contained—serious, but manageable. Slowing growth, an overleveraged property sector, and weak consumer confidence were widely viewed as internal issues, buffered by capital controls, state ownership, and the government’s ability to intervene at scale. That assumption may now be
Structural imbalances do not end market cycles on their own. As Part I outlined, China’s debt system has proven remarkably effective at internalizing losses through repression, rollover, and state control. That capacity explains why the global expansion can persist longer than many expect. But while stress can be stored
Capital markets function best when prices are set by competing buyers and sellers in open, liquid venues. Risk is revealed through volatility, losses are recognized in real time, and capital flows toward its most productive use. When those mechanisms are weakened, or deliberately bypassed, returns can still be generated, but
We have consistently argued that the current market cycle closely mirrors the early 1920s—a post-crisis reset marked by real productivity gains, capital deepening, and the emergence of a transformative general-purpose technology. Just as electrification reshaped the economy a century ago, artificial intelligence is driving durable earnings growth and supporting
Thoughts, stories and ideas.
The artificial intelligence boom is real. Capital spending is exploding, compute demand is rising at unprecedented rates, and entire industries are reorganizing around machine intelligence. But history suggests a crucial distinction that investors often miss: growth in demand does not guarantee durable profits and the biggest winners are often not
On December 31, 2025, enhanced ACA subsidies expire by law. When they do, more than 24 million Americans will face premium increases averaging 114%, and an estimated 3 to 5 million people are expected to lose health insurance coverage altogether. Congress knows this deadline is coming—and yet it remains
The United States is nearing a fiscal tipping point. Federal debt now stands at $38.09 trillion. Interest payments have climbed to $970 billion per year and could exceed $1.6 trillion by 2035. Annual deficits remain stuck around $1.8 trillion. These numbers are not abstract; they represent a
For years, the United States has struggled with a structural housing affordability crisis. Prices remain high, mortgage rates remain elevated, and tens of millions of renters remain locked out of homeownership despite being willing, able, and economically essential to the future of the housing market. Traditional policy tools have failed
The industrial pattern that defined the last century is repeating itself, this time in silicon instead of steel. The first phase of the AI boom has been driven by infrastructure: chips, data centers, and the cloud platforms that power them. That phase is now maturing. Valuations for Nvidia, AMD, and
Executive Summary The quantum computing sector represents a transformational investment opportunity spanning three distinct time horizons, each favoring different technologies and companies. This report synthesizes technical assessments of neutral atom, photonic, and trapped-ion quantum computing modalities alongside detailed company analysis to provide actionable investment recommendations for near-term (0–3 years)
In industrial history, overcapacity always begins with optimism. The late 1970s petrochemical buildout was justified by the same logic now driving the global AI infrastructure race: seemingly infinite demand, technological inevitability, and geopolitical diversification. Western chemical giants, Dow, Union Carbide, ICI, believed that supplying technology to Saudi Arabia would expand
America’s next economic expansion won’t be powered by stimulus or speculation, it will be powered by productivity. What we are witnessing today is the early phase of a generational transformation in the U.S. economy, one that mirrors the supply-side renaissance of the 1920s under President Calvin Coolidge.
The model remains firmly on track, stronger than expected. September, which was projected to be a mild pullback, instead delivered steady gains as Mideast peace developments added an unexpected tailwind to risk assets. October followed with similar strength, leaving markets up 3.5% and 2.3% in each of the
Every year, millions of smiling children fan out across America carrying one of the most trusted brands in the country — a box of Girl Scout Cookies. For decades, Thin Mints, Tagalongs, and Samoas have represented community, entrepreneurship, and nostalgia wrapped in chocolate and cardboard. Nobody is accusing the Girl Scouts
For thousands of years, war has been humanity’s most brutal teacher, and its most powerful catalyst for progress. From the bronze forges of ancient Egypt to the nuclear laboratories of World War II, conflict has repeatedly forced civilizations to invent faster, build smarter, and adapt or perish. Every major
The economic transformation now underway in the Middle East represents one of the most consequential shifts of the 21st century. A potential coalition of ten nations—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Israel, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan—could soon emerge as the world’s fourth-largest economic