Echoes of Coolidge: Political Pushback, Social Fractures, and the Bull Market of a Century

In February, I argued that 2025 would rhyme with 1926 — the year when a volatile, skeptical market finally launched into the vertical phase of one of history’s greatest bull runs. That view has only strengthened as the months pass.

July landed close to my forecast of ~4% gains, with the S&P 500 rising 2.2%. August is likely to be choppy, but I expect it to finish about 1.5% higher, followed by a flat to slightly negative September. This isn’t cause for concern. It’s the same consolidation pattern we saw a century ago, when the market catching its breath before the liftoff that defined the late 1920s.

If history continues to rhyme, the next 2.5 years could deliver the kind of move that still echoes through market lore: an exceptional ~200% gain by the end of 2028.

Coolidge vs. Congress, Trump vs. Washington

The parallels between the 1920s and today extend beyond the markets.

In late 1925 through early 1927, President Calvin Coolidge faced a political environment that looked surprisingly like our own. Despite Republican control of Congress, he was hit with notable pushback: midterm losses in 1926, bipartisan passage of the McNary–Haugen farm relief bill (which he ultimately vetoed), and fierce criticism from Progressive voices like Justice Louis Brandeis, who accused him of “repressing Congress.”

Coolidge, a small-government champion, stuck to his principles. The clashes with Congress only sharpened his administration’s pro-business agenda, helping set the stage for the roaring markets that followed.

President Trump now faces a similar dynamic. His second administration’s signature “big beautiful bill,” aimed at sweeping deregulation and aggressive fiscal restructuring, has run into stiff resistance from Congress and entrenched interests in Washington. Much of the pushback centers on its expansive approach to deregulation, including the dramatic reclassification of tokenized assets under CFTC oversight and its reliance on new tariffs to fund domestic priorities. These measures, while designed to supercharge U.S. growth and give the administration leverage on trade, have sparked bipartisan concern over inflationary pressures, revenue distribution, and the long-term balance of federal power. This tension echoes Coolidge’s battles with Congress in the 1920s, reflecting a deeper struggle over how government should navigate a rapidly transforming economy.

It’s also worth acknowledging another uncomfortable parallel: the rise of antisemitism. The mid-1920s saw an ugly resurgence of antisemitic sentiment, fueled by social dislocation and populist rhetoric. We are seeing echoes of that today. It’s a reminder that even in eras of prosperity, underlying social fractures can deepen — a dynamic investors and policymakers alike must not ignore.

The Market’s Coil Before the Spring

Political noise hasn’t derailed the structural bull case.

Falling inflation, despite the headlines, and a cooling labor market is reshaping expectations. Rate cuts are approaching. Global capital is flowing toward U.S. assets as Europe and China struggle under their own weight. And the financial architecture itself is changing: tokenization, AI-driven productivity, and quantum computing are pushing capital markets into new territory.

Another major development also favors the bull market thesis: the early retirement of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, a known policy hawk. This gives Trump the opportunity to install an ally who could serve as a de facto “shadow chair,” pressuring Powell from within. Markets are beginning to price in an inter-meeting rate cut, one that would align with Trump’s agenda and potentially trigger a sharp acceleration in equities, much like the liquidity bursts of the late 1920s.

This August–September chop isn’t the end of the rally. It’s the setup. We saw the same coiling before the 1927 liftoff and that’s exactly where we are today.

The Supercycle Blueprint: From Here to 2028

Let’s keep the blueprint in focus:

• 1926 → 2025: Correction resolves; skepticism lingers.
• 1927–1928 → 2026–2027: The vertical phase — markets accelerate, gains compound rapidly.
• 1929 → 2028: The speculative peak of the cycle.

This is the path we’re on. And the numbers still point to an extraordinary run: a potential 200% increase in equities over the next 2.5 years.

Opportunity Amid Turbulence

August and September will test investors’ patience. But this is no time to flinch.

History is rhyming with extraordinary fidelity: political pushback, social tension, and a market coiled for one of the most powerful bull runs in a century. Those who see the pattern, and can act on it, will be positioned for generational opportunity.

“History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes and those who recognize the rhyme can write their own verse.”